Friday, 6 February 2009

Building the 'AtticFund' - The Oil & Gas Sector

On Friday I was given the day off by my employers (very nice of them considering its only the 3 day off I've had in 4 weeks!). It did give the chance to spend some screen time researching the 'AtticFund'. Building a portfolio of well hedged investments is actually a little foreign to me. In the two years I've been actively trading, I have been focused on 14 instruments, which I traded based purely on technicals.

The 'Atticfund' will combine my understanding of technical analysis and stuff like money and risk management,  with my views on sectors and companies that I believe have fundamental reasons to do well in the current climate (or not, I the case of going short!)

I've been exchanging emails with a couple of friends and associates and have started to develop some ideas on the sectors I'm interested in getting involved in.

As you know, I'm interested in the software sector, as I believe that this sector will not only begin to show the first signs of recovery, but also because I think that somewhere out there, there's a company or two that are poised to benefit hugely from the massive growth in the social networking/Web 2.0 phenomenon. There will certainly be at least one software company in the 'AtticFund'

When I first started getting serious about the markets my interest was in oil. I read all I could about the energy markets - it became clear very quickly that Oil literally 'rules' the world. You can not walk 10 yards down the street without oil (or a by-product) being evident. I paper traded oil for a while and quickly realised that I had no idea how to make money from it. It was so volatile and apparently unrelated to everything around it, that I quickly gave up. What is evident however is that as the worlds population grows, so the demand for energy goes up.

A friend dropped me an email yesterday on a couple of his investments, one of which is a solar company based in Germany. This got me thinking and digging further into this sector. I've happened across an interesting company in Oil and Gas Sector.

The company is called Wellstream (WSML.L)
  • Specialise in bespoke pipeline products.
  • Market share is approx. 30% of the global offshore flexible pipe market - (sounds impressive - as O&G resources become more scarce, the greater the need to extract from harder to find places grows) 
  • T/o £50m in 2004 to £266m in 2007 - (Impressive growth)
  • Technically, the stock looks to have hit a bottom around Nov 2008 of 300 - they have grown steadily to 529.
  • Debt/Equity on 28 - (Means nothing to me without an industry benchmark - must go and find one!!)
Wellstream are on the watch-list. (But slightly concerned by the long tail day on 22nd Jan - that could have blown your position out of the water!)












Taking a look at the O&G sector technicals, nothing jumps out at me apart from the unusual volatility - It would take a brave trader to make a call on this Sector. Oil prices are still pretty low, and as the world moves closer to recession, so demand will tail off, so this sector is unlikely to enter a bullish phase for a period of time. I'll keep and eye on this sector and see what happens


The Oil & Gas Sector
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