Trading Update

Just a quicky tonight.

I've decided to go in at the market with Centamin, so have cancelled the limit order from yesterday and will place a market order tomorrow - details will be posted over the weekend.

I have also amended my Wellstream order, in an atttempt to get filled.

My Revised Wellstream order details;

Buy Limit @ 542p (A VERY minor pullback required for a fill)

Stop - 500p (Not much room on this trade now, but if it hits 500 then I got the direction wrong))

Target - 600p (My initial target - depending on how/if it gets here, I'll make a decision)

Position size - £4.50/point. (£4.50 * 42pts = £189)

Max risk - £189 (<2% of the AtticFund)

Trading Update - 2 new orders

Today I placed two buy limit orders:

Centamin Egypt (CEY.L) - Having closed my previous position to protect a profit, I placed a buy limit order today. I've reduced the risk that this position carries as (like I've stated before) I'm keen to hold onto this for as long as I can. Their first gold pour is due in early June, but I'm assuming that as this nears, this will be priced into the market, so should see a steady rise.  See below for order details

My Centamin order details;

Buy Limit @ 51.5p (A minor pullback required for a fill)

Stop - 45.03p (Well below potential support -giving this trade some room)

Target - 60.03p (My initial target - depending on how/if it gets here, I'll make a decision)

Position size - £15/point. (£15 * 7pts = £105)

Max risk - £105 (1% of The AtticFund)

Wellstream (WSM.L) have enjoyed a steady bull run since late February. I should have got involved earlier, but it looks to be consolidating before making another move, a nice potential entry point.

My Wellstream order details;

Buy Limit @ 503p (A minor pullback required for a fill)

Stop - 431.7p (Well below potential support - giving this trade some room)

Target - 600p (My initial target - depending on how/if it gets here, I'll make a decision)

Position size - £2.65/point. (£2.65 * 75pts = £198)

Max risk - £198 (2% of The AtticFund)

Trading Update - Centamin Position Closed

Today I closed my Long on Centamin before my stop was hit. The reason was pretty simple, it is currently following Gold on a downward path.

Centamin Egypt

Entry: 50.57 (24th Feb 2009)

Exit: 53.36 (20th April 2009)

Attic Fund profit: 0.7%

I will continue to monitor this stock as I am bullish on the long term, but I am happy to dip in an out as the opportunities present themselves.

Lesson Learnt:

Even though I plan on building a fund over time, it is still a valid strategy to buy for the long term on the dips and sell when the stock looks over extended, before re-buying on further dips. With Centamin, I had some obvious opportunity to sell when the stock was looking over-extended on the daily charts, instead I held my position and saw a good percentage of my profits erode.

Trading Update - Hurry up and wait...

AtticFund Update;

Centamin Egypt +12.9%

Autonomy Corp +6.7%

AtticFund +3.8%

Centamin Egypt

After Mondays rise in Gold ($884 to $894), I felt that Centamin Egypt (CEY.L) could well benefit from this rise and from the open things looked good, with Centamin rising from 57.3 on open to a high of 60.8p in only 2 hrs.

As I'm using a leveraged product this 6.1% rise equated to a nice 1% increase in the AtticFund. However by the close Centamin had given back all of these early gains to close at 57.2p leaving me staring at a very bearish candlestick pattern (below).

Further investigation revealed that this candle has been formed on average volume which suggests that this is not a reversal and so I remain invested with my stop at 50p.

Autonomy Corp PLC (AUTN.L) was also down today.

This stock is now trading 7.6% off its recent highs, and the Attic Funds profit from this stock has eroded from a high of 5.2% to 2.3%. Taken in isolation, that is not a bad return from a single position, but it is hard to accept as this is starting to feel like a loss. On the plus side, the chart still looks incredibly bullish, with the current dip in the share price looking like a pullback (as opposed to a reversal). On further inspection, Autonomy looks to be creating a Bull Flag on the daily charts (below).

So I remain invested in Autonomy, with a stop at 1300, guaranteeing a 1.9% return. If I was to get stopped out (which is a real possibility over the next couple of days), then I will continue to search for buying opportunities on this stock as I am still generally very bullish about this company.

Trading Update - Rough ride for the AtticMan

It's been a rough couple of days for the fledgling AtticFund. With both stocks falling dramatically in the last couple of days.

Centamin is down 14.7% from a high of 62.2 on 1st April to 54.2 today and Autonomy is down7.3% from a high of 1421 yesterday to 1324 today.

It's never nice when the portfolio takes a battering but all you can do is re-assess the current situation and trade on.

Autonomy is still in an uptrend and todays sharp decline was on low volume, indicating no real conviction in the move. I have moved my stop up to 1,300, meaning whatever happens I will collect a small profit.

Centamin is also still in an uptrend and fell aggressively yesterday in-line with the decrease in the gold price. I've moved my stop to 50, which represents a small loss.

I am learning all the time about how to trade over a long time frame and certainly with Centamin, booking a profit when the trade was 18% up, now seems like a missed opportunity. But I need to keep reminding myself that this is a risky play and that the market opinion of this stock is still postitive. 

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Trading Update - The AtticFund (5.5% for month)

Centamin Egypt CEY.L (+19.8%)

Daily candles show indecision. There is potential for a pullback/correction.

Keep an eye on the weekly candles, potential bearish formation.

Potential Resistance @ 65

Potential Support @ 60

Stop @ 51.58 (Trade is now risk free)

Target @ 70

Autonomy Corp AUTN.L (+9.11%)

Daily and weekly candles are bullish

Potential Resistance @ 1360

Potential Support @ 1250

Stop @ 1250  (Trade is now risk free)

Target - Currently Open

Centamin Egypt - Trading update

Centamin is doing great. Up nearly 18% since I went long.

That is a good gain and my swing trading experiences are screaming at me to close this position and book a profit. I've never been in a position on an instrument which made an 18% gain before, my previous best was a Soybean trade that made 8%, but that was much more short term trading than the strategy I am trading now.

The AtticFund is designed to be more long term and Centamin has great potential over the next year or so and I remain bullish. The candles are still bullish in the short term and with resistance at 65-70, I'd expect to see it test that at some point in the next 2 weeks

Trading Update - The AtticFund

The AtticFund currently has 2 long and 0 short positions:

Centamin Egypt (CEY.L)

Bought@50.57. Current Price 54.75 (up 8.3%)

Autonomy Corp (AUTN.L)

Bought@1237.78 Current Price 1312 (up 5.9%)

The Fund is up 2.9% since 24th February 2009

Both stocks now look extended from value and with a pretty decent return it's tempting to take something from the table. I'd like to be able to close out a portion of these positions and book a profit, but I'm unable to do this because of the platform I've used to trade.

I have to keep reminding myself that I'm in these positions for the long term, but what I do need to do is consider exactly HOW long I intend to stay in these positions and exactly WHAT is my profit target.

Revised strategy for Centamin Egypt

68p is a 'pre gold production' price target. With some analysts estimating 120p post production. As long as Centamin are not actually mining gold, this is still a risky play and I need to exercise caution.

A price of 68p would yield The AtticFund 4.4%.

120p would yield 17.4%. 

There is resistance between 56-58 and support between 47-50. I will keep my stop at 44.6 and place a profit target at 65p (potential AtticFund return 3.6%)

Revised strategy for Autonomy Corp

Currently trading at or near 41/2 yr highs, I would expect a further period of consolidation at the current levels. Weekly candles show real indifference over the last couple of weeks. My reasons for buying this stock remain the same, and so I remain committed to holding my position. I've tightened the stop to 1209 (1% risk) and will hold on until I see some real upside resistance

Centamin Egypt - Update

Despite gold gaining $30 last week, Centamin Egypt chopped between 48 & 52. There's been no material news on the company in the last couple of weeks, so I'll continue to hold my long position, which is currently down .25%

This type of 'longer term' investment does require a different mind set to the one I have developed around my day and short-term swing trading. I'm used to checking my positions at least 3 or 4 times a day, but that's really not a good habit to get into when you are looking to hold a position for at least a couple of months!

The graph below, shows a potential Bull Flag. Lets wait and see.

The AtticFund - Trading Update

Getting fully invested is taking longer than expected - not least because I've been somewhat sidetracked by twitter! - I've posted a couple of blogs about this crazy little tool - It really is pretty cool. I'm up to 169 followers - mostly trading dudes and the odd celeb! Follow me if you want to keep up to date with my micro thoughts!

I got filled on Centamin Egypt on 24th Feb at 50.57 - I revised my entry down, as the pullback was definitely more aggressive than I expected. So far it looks like a fairly safe entry point. Stop was also revised down to 42.57 - So Funds at Risk remain at 2%. The reason for the pullback was the half yearly report - Centamin got pretty nailed with FX stuff, but fundamentals haven't changed and they are still on course to open the first modern day Gold mine in Egypt in Q2 2009. Currently I'm up 0.2% on this stock (Oh yeh! The AtticMan is a trading genius!!:))

I'm getting ready to get involved with Autonomy Corp. Since I first started following them, they've been a little crazy - A massive gap up of 12% on 9th Feb, was closed the same day. Since then, they've been chopping between 1268 and 1151 (10%). I'll either place a buy limit at the low of the range (1151) or a buy stop at the high of the range (1268).  Either way, I'm going to wait a while until it's clear which way this stock is trending in the short-term. 

Micro Focus International has also been bloody volatile! Soon after I started following them their share price shot up 5.4% before dropping 17.7%!! The 50EMA seems to have halted the slide and they have since recovered 11.2%. This sort of volatility can play havoc with the nerves, but as a leveraged trader, I'll simply widen my stops and reduce my position size. The stock is currently trading between 8 and 21EMA and to be honest it looks like I missed the best entry point for this stock, (the consolidatiion around 270) so I'll wait for another period of consolidation before getting involved.

I'm off to do some more research before my little boy finishes his afternoon nap and insists on playing 'Mary has a Baby' on an untuned guitar! (to compound how bad that sounds, he plays a right-handed guitar left-handedly....) Later

Centamin Egypt CEY.L - Outta the blocks!!

This little baby is flying out of the blocks right now. Since I posted on this stock on 10th Feb its up 19%! (57 from 48).

Clearly benefiting from the rush for gold and its plans to open the first modern day owner operated gold mine in Egypt. Current price is too far from value for me right now. I risk being left on the touchline but I'd prefer to wait for a pullback before getting involved. $1,000 will offer resistance to gold ("really..." I hear you cry!!) but remember my rationale for Centamin was based not only on its exposure to Gold, but also its fundamentals, which remain excellent - Henderson Global Investors bought a 2.84% stake in the business (reported today)

Centamin Egypt

My order details;

Buy limit @ 52p (Pullback to 8EMA)

Stop - 44.57p (21EMA)

Target - I'll give some thought to this later

Max risk - £200 (2% of The AtticFund)

Position size - £25/point. (£25 * 7pts)

GOLD MINERS WANTED! - Centamin Egypt CEY.L

As you know, the 'AtticFund' is due representation from the commodity world. I was considering simply buying a derivative of Gold futures, but volatility is still too high for this type of investment to be considered as part of the AtticFund.

I read an article yesterday revealing that Paulson & Co have increased their stake in Centamin Egypt (a gold mining company) from 8.09% to 9.6% (£41.65m). Paulson & Co are a high profile hedge fund who have benefited hugely from their investments over the credit crunch. They recently made a reported $100m on their shorting of RBS - this however pales into insignificance with the gains Paulson & Co have made over their "shorting" the US mortgage market - John Paulson apparently enjoyed a personal pay package of $3.7bn (£1.9bn) last year. As far as qualified leads go, Centamin Egypt is a good one, not only will I have exposure to the gold market, but I will also benefit from Centamin's expansion plans. However this will not stop me from making my own decisions and conducting my own research.

Centamin Egypt CEY.L

• On schedule to open the first 'modern day' gold mine in Egypt (called Sukari Hill) during Q2 2009.
• Hit hard by FX exposure, which lead to a successful capital raising exercise (GBP 33m) in January 2009. (Raising cash in the current market is no mean feat and underlines the potential of this company)
• Reserves at Sukari Hill 3.7m ounces Proven and Probable, 9m ounces (Measured and Indicated) and 3.3million ounces Inferred (that is a shit lot of gold in anyone's book!!)
• Sources estimate that production will run at 200,000 ounces per annum over 15 years, with costs of $365 per ounce (these costs were revised up from $260 as result of the higher cost of consumables).
• Gold is currently trading around $910 per ounce, so their margin on an ounce is IRO $545. If they hit their production targets, this mine will yield $108m revenue per annum
• According to a 2008 presentation they have no debt.
• They have revenue sharing agreements in place with Arab Republic of Egypt. (No great surprises here - several multinationals have long operating histories in Egypt)

This is a really exciting prospect. All the signs are good. The company has a good product, good management and great prospects. This little fella's definately on the AtticFund's watch list.

Centamin Egypt

GOLD!!!!