To have experienced first hand, how the worlds financial markets have changed so dramatically in such a short period has been a surreal experience. This time last year, there was talk of a downturn. So called professionals were predicting a couple of quarters of depressed growth, followed by a period of slow growth, before we headed back to the good times. How they have got it wrong!
The world is now firmly fighting a recession, some may even say we could enter a depression. What does that mean? What actually defines a recession? Well I think a number of things point in this direction. I don't actually know if there is a 'technical' measure for a depression, but if we look at what has happened this year, with record bailouts being announced in the banking industry, the car industry in turmoil, jobless numbers rising, countries declaring themselves bankrupt and global housing markets completed screwed, I think it's fair to say the world is staring down the barrel of a long and painful period.
Whats for sure, is that Banking is unlikely to be the same again anytime soon. They say that the 1930's depression was caused by 'Over speculation and Over investment coupled with Over leverage' - IMHO this almost perfectly defines what has happened in the last 6 years.
For someone like me, who has grown used to 'how the world has worked' in this time, it feels like nothing will be the same again any time soon. But more importantly for me, the state of the worlds finances affects me in so many ways. I work for a large global bank - we have never been busier - but will I lose my job? I trade my own futures account - Will regulation affect this or is this time one of great opportunity? If I was made redundant, could I escape the rat race and do something completely different or should I simply be content to have a job and be able to put food on my childerens table? Should I keep my head down and keep working all the hours god sends to help 'save' my current employer or should I shout from the roof tops 'MAKE ME REDUNDANT!!' - Answers on a postcard please......
What is for sure, is that right now I don't have the answer :) But every cloud has a silver lining and many great businesses start in recessions and this recession will be no exception. Somewhere in the world right now, as I type these words, there is a business being built in some garage or attic that will rise from the ashes and will become a global player in a short space of time. I've always wanted to be involved in something like that - maybe this is my time? I just need to find the right opportunity!
