A more detailed look at the revised strategy.

Since I've been using AmiBroker, my strategy has changed a little. The basic principles of the strategy remain the same (Click here for my initial blog AtticFund strategy), but I've been able to re-introduce some of the technical indicators that I used to use on Tradestation.

Here is a revised overview of the strategy;

We are currently in a bull market - I'm only going long (there is the odd exception however, but only using a much smaller size)

Technicals (long only)

• Scan daily charts using AmiBroker to find bullish price action, using a combination of OHLC over a set number of bars
• Are stochastics overbought or oversold
• Is volume increasing
• What does the Squeeze look like (much more on the squeeze in a later post)

This scan normally reveals 20 stocks to investigate further...

• Is the weekly chart bullish (pretty much without exception they all are at the moment)
  
• How far from a value entry is the stock (I normally will not trade a stock that looks extended from its 8EMA)

Once I have my watch list, I then undertake some fundamental research.

Fundamentals

Company Activity - I only invest in companies I understand and that I'm interested in.

Profits and Market share - I only invest in companies that have grown (when going long) their market share and profitability consistently over the last 4 years.

Debt/Equity Ratio - I look for companies with a comparatively low Debt/Equity ratio

Volatility - Does the company trade with average volatility - I'm not interested in crazy volatility

What are people saying about the company - What is the talk amongst the professionals and independent traders?

Currently the markets are on a nice bull run, so going long is much easier than going short. I'm much more comfortable on the long side so it will be interesting what happens when the markets turn. The scan I undertake can be reversed to identify shorting opportunities, but I need to identify an indicator to give me a warning that the markets are turning (so I can start to look for shorting opportunities).

There's still a fair bit to be done on the strategy but for now I have at least identified and rectified my ability to locate potential investment opportunities.

Here's my strategy development 'to do' list;

1. FTSE 100 and 250 Weekly scan for Bullish / Bearish Direction

2. Weekly Sector scans for bullish / bearish Direction

3. Develop a bearish scan for all FTSE 100 & 250 stocks

4. Enhance the use of the Squeeze indicator to identify long and short opportunities

5. Develop a scan to be used on company fundamentals (this will reduce the time it takes to research companies)

About the AtticFund

What is the AtticFund?

The AtticFund is my personal trading account. It is a long/short fund consisting of mainly UK equities. I record on this blog all the trades I make, together with some I didn't make. I talk about what I'm doing well and what I'm not doing so well. If the fund starts losing money, I'll continue blogging - Learning from ones failures is perhaps more important than learning from ones successes.

How big is the AtticFund?

I started the AtticFund with £10,000

When did you start the AtticFund?

My first AtticFund trade was 24th Feb 2009 (Long Centamin Egypt)

How is the AtticFund doing right now?

As at Monday 1st June 2009 the atticFund is +9.75% - Check out the latest portfolio analysis

What is the Trading Strategy?

A combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Fundamentals

Sector Analysis - What is the general trend in the sector - I only invest in the direction of the sector trend

Company Activity - I only invest in companies I understand and that I'm interested in.

Profits and Market share - I only invest in companies that have grown (when going long) their market share and profitability consistently over the last 4 years.

Debt/Equity Ratio - I look for companies with a comparatively low Debt/Equity ratio

Volatility - Does the company trade with average volatility - I'm not interested in crazy volatility

What are people saying about the company - What is the talk amongst the professionals and independent traders?

Technicals (long only)

• Is the weekly chart bullish
  
• Does the daily chart look like pulling back to provide a value entry (near 8/21 EMA)
  
• What does the candlestick pattern look like
  
• Are these moves supported by Volume (I'm a big believer in Price Action supported by Volume - sometimes called Volume Spread Analysis)

How do you set your Stops?

I only risk 2% of the account on any single trade (read more about money management here)

How do you set your Targets?

I look for obvious levels of resistance - either potential historic levels or things like round numbers

What are your strengths as a trader - Why do you think the AtticFund will make money?

My main strength is my discipline around Stops. I always set one and never move it. Period. (read more about daily disciplines here)

My trading is now pretty simple, I try not to clutter my analysis with all the indicators under the sun.

I have read and re-read Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone and believe the following;

• Anything can happen.
  
• You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
  
• There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
  
• An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
  
• Every moment in the market is unique
  

What are your weaknesses - Why could the AtticFund lose money?

I do not have any quick way of identifying trading opportunities, so more often than not the AtticFund is 'cash heavy'

Placing targets still remains a black art

I struggle to identify shorting opportunities and with the markets as they are, I'm missing opportunity.